With Assad's Fall, What Consequences Will The Iranian Regime Face?

The cities of Aleppo and Hama were overtaken by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s rebel alliance, while Daraa was seized by local armed groups. (AP pic) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by — The cities of Aleppo and Hama were overtaken by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s rebel alliance while Daraa was seized by local armed groups. (AP / https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/)

The collapse of the Assad regime is a strategic setback for the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Key points

A weakened Hezbollah military
Iran’s nuclear program exposure
The humiliation of the Iranian regime among Iranians

Hezbollah will remain militarily weak

Syria was a crucial gateway for the supply of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah. Iran had constructed weapon manufacturing facilities on Syrian soil to provide weapons to Hezbollah. This gateway has been lost. Consequently, Hezbollah, which suffered a military defeat at the hands of Israel, will remain militarily weak. The situation will ultimately force Hezbollah to become a solely political entity, without its armed forces.

Iran's nuclear program is (even) more exposed

Iran’s nuclear installations are more exposed to a possible Israeli military strike.

The IRI relied on its proxy forces in Syria and Lebanon to deter Israel. Since Hezbollah has been greatly weakened, Iran's proxy forces have had to evacuate Syria
Other deterrence factors are Iran's air defenses and missile production facilities. But, Israel’s April 26 attack against Iran severely weakened its air defenses. Israel destroyed Iran's missile production facilities. It is estimated that the IRI will need at least a year to repair them unless Israel attacks them again, either covertly, or overtly. Such exposure could likely strengthen the voice of those within the IRI calling for a new nuclear deal with Trump.
The Iranian President Rouhani called for a new approach after Trump walked out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, but Supreme Leader Khamenei voted him down, according to Radio Farda. Because of the nuclear program’s unprecedented exposure, those who share Rouhani’s opinion may get their way.

The Iran regime is humiliated

The collapse of the Assad regime has caused unprecedented joy among many Iranians.

First, because Assad was an ally of the increasingly unpopular regime of Supreme Leader ʿAli Khamenei.

Second, many Iranians resented the $30 billion (minimum) that the Khamenei regime invested in Syria, to defend Assad's genocidal regime. One of the popular chants at anti-regime protests was “Leave Syria alone, do something about us [instead].”

Third, Assad's fall comes on the heels of other defeats suffered by the Khamenei regime in the region, namely in Gaza and Lebanon.

Fourth, the Iranian regime's response to the unfolding events in Syria (especially) has made it look feeble and indecisive. As the editor of the Conservative Jahan news noted, on the night of Assad's fall, the commander of the IRGC Quds Force was at a religious ceremony in Tehran. Not in Syria, helping Iran's ally who was in dire need.

Wrap up

Iran's intelligence services are likely worried that the IRI's recent setbacks in the region, especially in Syria, could encourage new uprisings in Iran. They would be right because living in Iran has become unbearable for most Iranians and they blame the regime for it.

Trump’s impending inauguration on January 20, 2025, coupled with the Assad regime’s downfall, has significantly limited Supreme Leader Khamenei’s margin for error. More than ever, he will need to be careful, at home and abroad.

Dr. Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-Israeli lecturer, author, and commentator. He teaches various Iran-related courses at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel.

His X handle @Meirja.