Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemingly makes Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei anxious and uneasy. During his first public engagement after the fall of Assad, on December 11, 2024, Khamenei blamed the US and Israel for Assad's downfall. And he went out of his way to avoid mentioning Turkey, using the term “a neighboring government of Syria” instead.
What are the sources of Khameini’s anxieties about Turkey under Erdogan?
Sunni Soft power
Turkey and Iran are soft power rivals in the Middle East and the Muslim world. 90% percent of the world’s Muslim population is Sunni, and 10% is Shiʿa, resulting in a significant numerical advantage for Turkey, a Sunni country.
Turkic Soft Power
The Turkic roots of Iran's neighbor, especially Azerbaijan and other parts of the Caucasus, give Turkey a competitive advantage over Iran. Turkey has used its common roots with Azerbaijan and its military and economic might to reduce Iran's influence there. The most recent example is the construction of the Zangezour corridor, on land captured by Azerbaijan in its 2020 war against Armenia. It will sever Iran's border with Armenia. More importantly, the corridor will directly connect Turkey to Azerbaijan, thus significantly increasing Turkey’s economic presence and influence in the Caucasus. Both are setbacks for Iran. But it can do little to compete with Turkey.
Turkey also has close ethnic roots with Iran's Azerbaijani citizens, who make up 16% of Iran's population. That is 14 million Iranians, 4 million more than independent Azerbaijan's total population. In contrast, Iran enjoys the support of a tiny minority of religious Turks.
More advanced economy
Turkey, unlike Iran, is not under sanctions and has a much more successful economy overall. In 1979, the GDP per capita of both countries was closely similar (between $2000-$2500). By 2023, the Turkish GDP per capita had increased to $13,236, whereas Iran's figure stood at $4391, a difference of 300% in Turkey’s favor.
Turkey’s success is partly due to industrialization policy. Before Assad’s fall, despite Iran's support for his regime, Turkish exports to Syria eclipsed that of Iran by 1000%. The Syrian consumer preferred the variation and higher quality of Turkish products (http://fdn.ir/79652 (accessed December 16, 2024).
Turkey has better relations with the West
While supporting Islamic groups, Turkey also has good relations with the West and the US. This contrasts with the Khamenei regime which sees itself at war with the US and Western influence in the region. This has enhanced Turkey’s advantage over Iran economically and diplomatically.
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Qatari support
Iran does not have close relations with any of the Persian Gulf countries. Turkey, in contrast, enjoys the political and economic support of Qatar, which is, per capita, the fifth richest country in the world. This gives Turkey access to a multibillion-dollar market, financial support, and PR support from Qatar’s Al Jazeera TV. None of Iran's allies in the Middle East can offer anything similar.
Turkey, under Erdogan, has regional ambitions. So does the Iranian regime. It is known that Turkey enjoys competitive advantages in many fields. Iran and Israel have something in common: both are worried about the rise of Turkey in the region, with good reason.
Dr. Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-Israeli lecturer, author, and commentator. He teaches various Iran-related courses at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel.
His X handle @Meirja.