Israel's resumption of military operations in Gaza represents a calculated move rather than a spontaneous return to conflict. The three-phase ceasefire agreement reached in January has effectively collapsed, with the first phase having expired two weeks ago. The anticipated second phase—which would have required Israeli forces to withdraw from Gaza and the strategic Philadelphi corridor—never materialized.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted on extending phase one of the ceasefire which would have seen all 59 hostages released without Israel leaving Gaza until Hamas's military and governing capabilities have been dismantled. Hamas has refused to extend phase one, insisting on sticking to the terms of the deal signed in January.
A Truce Designed to Fail?
The original agreement, facilitated by US, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators, included clearly defined stages. Phase one saw Hamas release 33 hostages and the remains of eight Israelis in exchange for nearly 1,900 Palestinian prisoners, including terrorists, and increased humanitarian aid. The agreement stipulated that phase two would commence on day 16, requiring IDF withdrawal from Gaza, including the Philadelphi corridor.
However, Israel delayed the withdrawal in the weeks following phase one. Instead of meeting its obligations, the Israeli government secured immediate gains—the release of hostages—while avoiding longer-term commitments. Subsequent negotiations stalled when Hamas insisted that further hostage releases must be accompanied by genuine troop withdrawals, a condition Israel rejected, suggesting the ceasefire was less a path to a long-term cessation of violence and more a tactical pause allowing Israel to extract concessions while preparing for continued operations.
Israel’s Political Challenges
While security considerations play a role, internal political dynamics within Israel seemingly influence certain decision-makers. Multiple political challenges include:
Investigations by Shin Bet into alleged illicit financial connections with Qatar involving aides of the Prime Minister’s Office;
A controversial attempt to remove the attorney general, seen as an independent check on executive power;
A pressing deadline to pass a critical budget, which if delayed could trigger government collapse and early elections.
To meet these challenges and the growing public discontent, Benjamin Netanyahu needs to shore up his government and reintegrate hardliner Itamar Ben-Gvir's party, which previously quit over the ceasefire. Ben-Gvir’s return was contingent on resuming military operations—making the renewed strikes seemingly much about maintaining a fragile coalition and deflecting domestic scrutiny as responding to Hamas's positions on hostage releases.
Strategic Imperatives and Deterrence
From a strategic perspective, Israel's military re-engagement reflects a clear assessment: allowing Hamas to remain in power would undermine Israel's regional deterrence posture. With superior military capabilities, Israel aims to apply pressure until Hamas is neutralized or is willing to make further concessions, even at the cost of a protracted war.
The renewed airstrikes—which reportedly killed over 400 Palestinians in a single night—are intended to force Hamas concessions. The IDF said it hit Hamas’s military wing. Israel argues that only through intensified military pressure will the remaining 59 hostages, including the last living US captive, Edan Alexander, be returned.
US President Donald Trump’s administration has supported Israel's actions as necessary responses to Hamas's "repeated refusal" to extend the truce on acceptable terms. US officials have indicated that Israel's approach is acceptable as long as it aligns with broader US regional security interests.
Humanitarian Impact and Regional Risks
The resumption of hostilities carries severe humanitarian and regional consequences. Gaza, devastated by 15 months of intermittent fighting, now faces the prospect of renewed full-scale offensive operations. Israel has halted humanitarian aid—including food, fuel, and medical supplies—exacerbating already dire conditions.
The blockade combined with intensive airstrikes threatens to deepen the humanitarian crisis for Gaza's 2.3 million residents, including the welfare of the hostages. Former hostage Eli Sharabi said this week at the UN that Hamas repeatedly stole humanitarian aid.
“I know that you’ve discussed the humanitarian situation in Gaza very often. But let me tell you, as an eyewitness, I saw what happened to that aid: Hamas stole it.
I saw Hamas terrorists carrying boxes with the UN and UNRWA emblems on them into the tunnel. Dozens and dozens of boxes paid by your governments. Feeding terrorists who tortured me and murdered my family. They would eat many meals a day from the UN aid in front of us and we never received any of it,” Sharabi said.
Regionally, the escalation could draw in other actors. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran-backed militias in Syria and Yemen, and Palestinians in the West Bank could be mobilized by the renewed conflict. Though all these potential adversaries have been substantially weekend over the past years. Still, what begins as an adjustment to the Gaza ceasefire could potentially trigger a wider regional conflagration.
Wrap Up
Domestic political pressures—from coalition realignments to pending judicial and budgetary crises—have compelled the current government to demonstrate strength and resolve. Strategically, Israel is betting that continued military pressure will eventually force Hamas to yield.
With the truce effectively dismantled, this renewed offensive may mark the beginning of an even more protracted and devastating phase of the conflict—one that could irrevocably alter both the immediate security situation and long-term political landscape in Israel and the Palestinian territories.
Elon Gilad is an Israeli author, journalist, and linguist. His work focuses on uncovering the historical roots of contemporary issues, particularly in current affairs, Jewish history, and the Hebrew language. Gilad is the author of "The Secret History of Judaism." His analytical pieces draw on his diverse background to provide unique insights into today's complex issues, explaining current situations through the lens of historical development.