President-elect Donald Trump has promised to stop Iran's nuclear program through the application of his “Maximum Pressure” campaign against Iran. The campaign consists of imposing the toughest economic and diplomatic sanctions, which has greatly worried Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Khamenei resists the US campaign against the nuclear plan
To confront US pressure, the Iranian regime is applying a three-track approach:
The first track involves immediate retaliation in response to new measures against Iran, for instance when Iran installed new advanced centrifuges in retaliation against a new resolution against Iran by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The main goal of this strategy is to deter the West from applying further pressure.
The second track consists of restarting nuclear negotiations. For the first time in two years, Iran and the EU3 comprising Germany, France and Britain will restart negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. The Iranian regime hopes these negotiations will create division between the EU and the Trump administration since the US is not part of that pact. The Iranian regime also wants to bring hope to Iran’s sanctioned and battered economy, which seems to be working. The news on the upcoming negotiations has increased the value of the Iranian currency against the dollar. According to the Sazandegi newspaper, before this news, the Iranian Rial had crossed the historic 700,000 Rial threshold against the US dollar. Now the Rial value has climbed back to 680,000.
The third track consists of the Iranian regime’s repeated threats to make a nuclear weapon, intending to strengthen Iran’s hand in the negotiations. Such threats by Iranian officials have grown considerably.
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Trump’s opportunities to stop Iran’s nuclear program
The incoming Trump administration, which wants to halt Iran’s path to a nuclear bomb, has several opportunities that it can use to its advantage:
Growing isolation of the Khamenei regime abroad. The regime’s only strong backers in the international community are Russia and China. Both have bigger priorities in their dealings with Trump — defending Iran will not be one of them.
The Iranian regime’s growing unpopularity at home. This has reduced its room for maneuvering in the negotiations. Owing to growing corruption and mismanagement of the economy, the Iranian public’s tolerance for further sanctions is much less than before. The majority of Iranians want the regime to reach an agreement as soon as possible so that foreign investment can reach areas where they are chronically needed. These include Iran's gas and electricity production facilities. The Iranian public’s growing intolerance toward more economic challenges makes it harder for the Khamenei regime to drive a hard bargain with Trump.
Iran's weakened military capabilities. Recent Israeli strikes have reduced Iran’s missile and drone-making abilities, in addition to causing great damage to Iran's aerial defenses while destroying a notable portion of Hezbollah's missile arsenal. Previously, the Iranian regime used such capabilities to deter a possible military strike against its nuclear installations. But now, it cannot do that to the same extent as before. The consequent growing exposure of Iran's nuclear capabilities to an aerial attack provides the Trump administration with an opportunity to drive a hard bargain with the Khamenei regime.
Overall, Trump’s strengths and opportunities seem to outweigh that of Khamenei’s. The Iranian leader (or future successor) will have a very challenging four years ahead of them.
Dr. Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-Israeli lecturer, author, and commentator. He teaches various Iran-related courses at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel.
His X handle @Meirja.