Iranian officials have been threatening to leave the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) to make a nuclear bomb. However, this was not always the case. For example, in 2011, an article from an Iranian website detailing the aftermath of a hypothetical first Iranian nuclear test garnered global attention. Mentioning anything that even insinuated that Iran wanted to build a nuclear bomb was taboo. Both supreme leaders of Iran stated their religious and moral opposition to making and using a nuclear bomb. Moreover, religious virtue-signaling aside, Iran’s leadership was concerned that even mentioning the scenario of building a nuclear bomb could justify more sanctions. Or worse, a military attack against Iran’s nuclear installations.
Why it matters
There are numerous reasons why threatening to make a nuclear weapon is no longer taboo in Iran.
An increasing sense of vulnerability rose among the ruling regime after several defeats in the region; Trump unilaterally left the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018 and then reimposed sanctions.
The fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime and the weakening of Hezbollah at the hands of Israel have shaken Iran. The regime has lost much of its bargaining power against the US.
Threatening to make a nuclear weapon is one of the few bargaining chips the Iranian regime has left.
Will Iran fulfill its threats to make a nuclear bomb?
Whether Iran will complete its nuclear bomb is a possibility that can not be dismissed, especially if Israel and/or the US launch a massive aerial attack against Iran’s nuclear installations.
Keep in mind that this scenario also carries a high risk.
Since 2009, Israel has reportedly assassinated numerous Iranian nuclear scientists and officials. The most notable case was the November 2020 assassination of General Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. He was a very senior figure in Iran's nuclear program who operated for many years in the shadows. These assassinations have created the belief among some Iranians that foreign intelligence agencies, especially the Mossad, have an intimate knowledge of Iran’s closely guarded secrets. And that Mossad has penetrated Iran’s intelligence agencies.
This same belief gained further credence after the purported Mossad assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024.
In Iran, there’s growing concern that if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gives the order to create a nuclear weapon, it would expose the identity of Iran’s nuclear scientists since they would have to gather in one place to make the bomb. Such an order would also expose Iran's secret nuclear installations where the bombs would be made.
If Iran does manage to make a nuclear weapon, the regime could face other existential challenges, such as turning into the new North Korea and facing tough, lasting sanctions until it is ready to give up its nuclear weapons. Such a scenario could lead to serious instability in Iran, even risking the fall of the regime.
While the Islamic Republic of Iran could surprise the world by making a nuclear weapon, it would also see serious short- and long-term risks to the regime, including its survival, which is a red line the regime has thus far not been willing to cross.
Dr. Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-Israeli lecturer, author, and commentator. He teaches various Iran-related courses at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel.
His X handle @Meirja.