On Tuesday, September 17, 2024, nearly a year into the conflict sparked by Hamas's October 7, 2023, attack, Israel made a significant adjustment to its official war objectives. The Israeli security cabinet formally added "the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes" to the goals of the war, a decision that raises a critical question: Why did it take so long to make the return of displaced northerners a priority, and what prompted the shift now?
Initial Focus on Gaza
The Israeli government initially defined its war objectives just hours after the October 7 attack. These goals included toppling Hamas's rule in Gaza, eliminating the threat of terrorist attacks from the territory, and defending Israel’s borders.
At the time, Gaza was seen as the primary front of the conflict, with Hamas posing the most immediate threat to Israel's security.
However, just one day later, on October 8, the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah launched a surprise rocket barrage from Lebanon, opening a second front in the north. Despite this escalation, the government’s primary focus remained on Gaza, partly due to the sheer scale of the violence there and the immediate threat to major Israeli population centers.
The Cost of Ignoring the North
Hezbollah's involvement in the conflict forced the Israeli military to implement widespread evacuations from towns near the Israel-Lebanon border. Starting on October 16, these evacuations eventually expanded to include the city of Kiryat Shmona, displacing approximately 60,000 people. This mass exodus represents the largest evacuation of a region since Israel's founding over 70 years ago, underscoring the severity of the situation.
Initially viewed as a temporary measure, these evacuations were expected to end once the fighting subsided. However, as the conflict dragged on, it became painfully clear that the northern front would not be quickly resolved. By September 2024, nearly a year after the initial displacement, 14,000 children began a second school year away from their homes, highlighting the prolonged nature of this crisis.
The humanitarian toll of this extended displacement has been severe. Families have been uprooted from their communities, facing the challenges of temporary accommodation and the stress of an uncertain future.
The psychological impact has been particularly acute, with residents experiencing deep trauma from the constant threat of rocket fire and the anxiety of forced separation from their homes. Inbar Bezek, CEO of the Upper Galilee Economic Corporation, aptly summarized the situation in an interview with Globes: "There is no family that hasn't undergone disruption, even at the level of personal safety, and alongside that there's a challenge of economic security."
Economically, the north has been devastated. The tourism industry, which typically attracts four million Israeli tourists annually, has ground to a halt. Restaurants, hotels, and other businesses reliant on tourism revenue are struggling to survive. The agricultural sector, a vital component of the north's economy, has been severely hampered by labor shortages and the inability to access fields for cultivation.
An estimated 30% of start-ups in the eastern Galilee have closed since the start of the war, with some businesses reporting up to a 55% decrease in revenue, according to August data.
The physical damage to the region has been extensive. Hezbollah has launched approximately 6,700 rockets and 340 drones at northern Israel, causing widespread destruction. Over 710 wildfires have been ignited by these attacks, burning through more than 105 square kilometers of land from the Upper Galilee to the Golan Heights. In Kiryat Shmona alone, there have been direct hits on 66 buildings, while 1,100 have suffered collateral damage.
Adding to the residents' woes is a pervasive sense of abandonment by the government. Many feel that the north has been neglected in favor of other priorities. Dubi Amiti, president of the Histadrut business division, articulated this sentiment in an interview with Globes, stating that while residents and businesses are demonstrating remarkable resilience, "Jerusalem isn't with us." He criticized the government's perceived inadequate financial support for the north compared to the south, highlighting a sense of disparity in resource allocation.
Despite the clear and mounting costs of this prolonged displacement - humanitarian, psychological, and economic - the return of displaced northerners was not made a formal war objective. This omission has left many questioning the government's commitment to the region and its long-term strategy for addressing the crisis in the north.
Why the Delay?
Several factors contributed to the delay in focusing on the plight of northern residents:
Initial Underestimation of Hezbollah’s Role
In the early stages of the war, the Israeli government likely underestimated the scale and duration of Hezbollah’s involvement. While Gaza was seen as the primary threat, the northern front was treated as secondary, despite the ongoing rocket attacks from Lebanon. The displacement of northern residents, while significant, may have been viewed as a temporary and reversible situation.
International Pressure
The United States and other international actors, including the UK, France and other countries in the West, urged Israel to exercise restraint in the north, fearing that a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah could escalate into a regional war. This pressure likely dissuaded the Israeli government from expanding its military operations in Lebanon, keeping the focus on Gaza.
Military Constraints
With much of the IDF’s resources committed to the Gaza front, there was limited capacity to open a new major front in Lebanon. The government may have delayed addressing the northern situation until military operations in Gaza could be scaled back.
Growing Domestic Pressure
As time went on, the domestic consequences of the northern displacement became more pressing. By July 2024, opposition politicians like Yair Golan of the Democrats party criticized the evacuation as a mistake, while Benny Gantz of Israel Resilience echoed similar sentiments in September. Within the Israeli government, internal tensions have also been escalating. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant advocates for accepting a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, which would secure the release of hostages, a stance aligning with that of the IDF.
However, hardline cabinet members Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir staunchly oppose any ceasefire, going so far as to threaten the coalition's stability over the issue.
The economic burden on the state and the personal toll on displaced citizens began to shift public opinion, with many demanding military action to end Hezbollah's threat and allow residents to return home. While many residents are eager to return to their homes, they fear that any respite would only be temporary. Their concerns run deeper than just rocket attacks. Lobby 1701, a group of residents from northern Israel, have been protesting against the government, calling for more decisive action to ensure their safety.
The group, named after the UN Security Council Resolution that ended the 2006 Lebanon War, says they won't return to their homes until their security is guaranteed. "We haven't been able to return to our homes for more than seven months. We won't go back until we know we're safe," Rafael Salb, co-founder of Lobby 1701 told Makor Rishon.
The evacuees are demanding military action against Hezbollah rather than a ceasefire agreement. "We don't want an agreement with Hezbollah. We want a full operation and intensive military pressure," Salb explained, echoing the sentiments of many displaced residents.
Rita Ben Yair, representing Shlomi, a border town in northern Israel, in Lobby 1701, expressed the frustration felt by many, telling Makor Rishon: "We'll shout and shout so no one forgets about the north. It feels like everyone has forgotten us." She highlighted concerns about education, closed businesses, and the uncertainty of their future.
The residents fear a potential invasion from Lebanon similar to the October 7 attacks. "We can't make a deal with Hezbollah," Ben Yair stressed. "Shlomi is right on the border. We're afraid of the tunnels they've dug into Israel."
This rising domestic pressure forced the government to reevaluate its priorities. By mid-September 2024, with operations in Gaza winding down and the IDF consolidating its gains, the government made the return of displaced northerners an official war objective. This move not only addressed internal political pressure but also reflected the growing military focus on Hezbollah.
A Shift in Strategy
With forces freed up from Gaza, Israel is now repositioning to deal more directly with Hezbollah. Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader, has repeatedly stated that his group will continue rocket attacks until Israel withdraws from Gaza, suggesting the northern conflict could drag on as long as the war in the south persists.
There is growing speculation that Israel may launch a broader military operation in Lebanon, aimed at pushing Hezbollah forces beyond the Litani River and destroying its missile stockpiles. However, international concerns, particularly from the U.S., continue to weigh heavily on Israeli decision-making.
Recent escalations against the terrorist group, including the recent exploding of pagers, radios and other electronic devices leading to thousands of Hezbollah casualties – alleged to be orchestrated by Israel – might be an attempt to provoke the group into escalating its attacks on Israel, justifying an all out Israeli attack.
Recent developments underscore the increasing focus on the northern front. U.S. President Joe Biden has stated that he is "working" on allowing people to return to their homes on the tense Israeli-Lebanon border. Biden emphasized his desire to ensure that people in northern Israel and southern Lebanon can "go back safely" to their homes, noting that his entire team, including the Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense, are collaborating with the intelligence community to achieve this goal. Additionally, following the assassination by Israel of Ibrahim Akil, a senior Hezbollah military official, on Friday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared that "the series of actions of this new phase [of the war] will continue until we achieve our goal: returning the residents of the north to their homes safely."
Wrap-up
The delayed focus on returning displaced northerners highlights the complex dynamics at play in Israel’s multi-front war. Initially, the Gaza front consumed military and political attention, while international pressure prevented a full-scale escalation with Hezbollah.
However, as domestic pressures mounted, the costs of displacement became undeniable. These costs included the shutting down of countless businesses in the region, the high expense of financial assistance and housing provided to evacuees, and the personal toll on uprooted families. Faced with these realities, the government was forced to broaden its objectives. Israel’s next moves in the north, and how Hezbollah responds, will be critical in determining the future course of the conflict. With northern residents now formally part of the war objectives, the coming day may see significant developments in Israel's approach to Hezbollah, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the entire region.
Elon Gilad is an Israeli author, journalist, and linguist. His work focuses on uncovering the historical roots of contemporary issues, particularly in current affairs, Jewish history, and the Hebrew language. Gilad is the author of "The Secret History of Judaism." His analytical pieces draw on his diverse background to provide unique insights into today's complex issues, explaining current situations through the lens of historical development.