Donald Trump secured victory in the US presidential election on November 5, 2024, marking his dramatic return to the White House amid Israel's ongoing conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Electoral College victory, which will see Trump take office in January 2025, comes at a critical juncture for US-Israel relations and regional stability.
Why it matters
Trump's stated intention to end the Gaza war quickly could force Israel to alter its military objectives
His push for Saudi-Israeli normalization would likely require Palestinian statehood concessions from Israel
The deteriorated Trump-Netanyahu relationship could affect U.S.-Israel coordination at a crucial military and diplomatic moment
Return to "maximum pressure" on Iran could escalate regional tensions
What will change after Trump's win?
Trump has outlined several immediate policy positions affecting Israel's current conflicts and regional standing. He expects the Gaza conflict to conclude by January 2025 and plans to resume the "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. The expansion of the Abraham Accords, particularly securing Saudi Arabia's participation, remains a top priority.
The incoming administration's approach differs significantly from Biden's traditional alliance-based diplomacy, returning to Trump's characteristic personal and transactional style. This shift suggests continued strong support for Israel but with more explicit conditions and expectations, particularly regarding conflict resolution timelines and regional peace initiatives.
Trump and Netanyahu: A complex history
In his first term we have seen that for Trump, much of foreign policy is dictated by personal relationships between leaders. For this reason, much relies on the relationship between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The relationship, once marked by unprecedented cooperation, has soured after Trump’s loss to President Joe Biden in 2020. During his first term, Trump delivered several major policy shifts favoring Israel, including recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital and acknowledging Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. However, the relationship deteriorated after Netanyahu congratulated Biden on his 2020 election victory, with Trump criticizing Netanyahu's handling of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. Still, Netanyahu seems to have favored a Trump victory and enthusiastically congratulated him on his victory calling it “history’s greatest comeback.”
Strategic considerations for Israel
For Israel, Trump's victory presents both opportunities and challenges. While his administration will likely provide significant military aid and diplomatic backing, his preference for quick diplomatic victories could create pressure between the administrations. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition may resist concessions demanded by Trump.
Israeli leadership must now balance between benefiting from Trump's broadly pro-Israel stance while maintaining autonomy in security decisions. This becomes particularly crucial as Israel faces multiple security challenges while Trump pursues diplomatic achievements that might require compromises on core Israeli positions.
Wrap up
Trump's return to office in January 2025 sets up an immediate test for Israel: meeting his deadline for ending the Gaza conflict while maintaining military operations against both Hamas and Hezbollah threats. The potential renewed push for Saudi-Israeli normalization and Trump’s strained relationship with Netanyahu suggests Israel will face difficult choices between maintaining its current policies and accommodating Trump's diplomatic ambitions in the region.
Elon Gilad is an Israeli author, journalist, and linguist. His work focuses on uncovering the historical roots of contemporary issues, particularly in current affairs, Jewish history, and the Hebrew language. Gilad is the author of "The Secret History of Judaism." His analytical pieces draw on his diverse background to provide unique insights into today's complex issues, explaining current situations through the lens of historical development.