Post-ceasefire Lebanon could present the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) leadership with newfound challenges, making it more difficult for the IRI to maintain its influence in the Land of the Cedars.
The Iranian regime lacks funds
One of the biggest challenges the IRI could face is a lack of funds to rebuild Hezbollah's damaged areas. Unlike the last Hezbollah–Israel war of 2006, this time, the IRI is under tough international sanctions. According to estimates from Iran, between 2011-2022, sanctions caused $1.2 trillion in damage to Iran's economy.
Iran cannot export its oil at the same levels as before. The growing energy crisis in Iran requires the regime to keep more of its oil at home. The imposition of new shipping sanctions by the EU makes the export of what remains much more difficult than before.
Before the ceasefire, an Iranian expert stated that pro-Hezbollah Lebanese refugees in Syria were cursing Iran since they believed Iran was not taking the war against Hezbollah seriously. They expected Iran to support Hezbollah. Anger at the IRI could increase further as Hezbollah supporters will soon realize Tehran cannot quickly rebuild war-torn areas. They could have many cold winters awaiting them among the ruins of Beirut.
The anti-Hezbollah front in Lebanon
Israel soundly defeated Hezbollah in the latest war. It eliminated much of Hezbollah's senior military and political leadership, as well as a notable part of Hezbollah's much-vaunted missile arsenal.
An embattled Hezbollah in turn has strengthened those in Lebanon who are against the terror group’s policies. Before this war, Hezbollah beat, tortured, and assassinated its Lebanese critics, silencing many of them.
Hezbollah’s military setbacks have already emboldened its critics at home. The IRI is also being criticized by Lebanese officials, condemning it for its “shameful interference.”
Ali Larijani, Supreme Leader Khamenei’s advisor, was thoroughly searched at Beirut’s airport, despite holding a diplomatic passport and his protests.
Weakening Hezbollah could create an opportunity for the strengthening of the Lebanese army. The West, especially the US will do its utmost to realize this scenario which is why the US and Israel both agreed to provide an outsized role for the Lebanese army in the new ceasefire agreement.
A weakened Assad regime
For years, Hezbollah was an important military ally of the Assad regime. Hezbollah's recent defeat against Israel has emboldened the anti-Assad opposition forces in Syria. This can be witnessed from the recent assault against the Syrian city of Aleppo by the US-designated terror group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
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With the Assad regime confronting new and serious security challenges, it will likely become more sensitive than before to Israeli attacks on its territory. In the long run, a weakened Assad regime could translate to Assad pressuring Iran to stop the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah via Syrian territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who also wants stability in Syria, could back Assad. With the Russian ruble tanking recently, Russia wants to focus its finances on more immediate priorities.
Dr. Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-Israeli lecturer, author, and commentator. He teaches various Iran-related courses at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel.
His X handle @Meirja.